Category: Science

Problems in the Current State of Science

Science, when conducted rigorously, is the best means for humans to explore and explain our reality. The key word being rigorously. Without that, our understanding of reality is skewed because it’s based on false facts. So, when I see something like this, I get concerned. The Economist published a lengthy article detailing critical problems in the current state of science. I would heartily recommend that you RTWT.

Various factors contribute to the problem. Statistical mistakes are widespread. The peer reviewers who evaluate papers before journals commit to publishing them are much worse at spotting mistakes than they or others appreciate. Professional pressure, competition and ambition push scientists to publish more quickly than would be wise. A career structure which lays great stress on publishing copious papers exacerbates all these problems. “There is no cost to getting things wrong,” says Brian Nosek, a psychologist at the University of Virginia who has taken an interest in his discipline’s persistent errors. “The cost is not getting them published.”

Two of the biggest issues that faces science is the current process of peer review as well as the undesirability of doing replication experiments. Currently, peer review is rife with errors that provide gaps for bad papers to be published.

…in a classic 1998 study Fiona Godlee, editor of the prestigious British Medical Journal, sent an article containing eight deliberate mistakes in study design, analysis and interpretation to more than 200 of the BMJ’s regular reviewers. Not one picked out all the mistakes. On average, they reported fewer than two; some did not spot any.

Replication, which is supposed to be the main corrective or confirmatory agent in the scientific method is disdained.

Journals, thirsty for novelty, show little interest in it; though minimum-threshold journals could change this, they have yet to do so in a big way. Most academic researchers would rather spend time on work that is more likely to enhance their careers. This is especially true of junior researchers, who are aware that overzealous replication can be seen as an implicit challenge to authority. Often, only people with an axe to grind pursue replications with vigour—a state of affairs which makes people wary of having their work replicated.

To me, this is definitely where voluntary associations could come into play. I would love to see something like United Laboratories be established for the express purpose of replicating and validating experiments. Or multiple organizations that can give experiments a “stamp of approval.” I don’t know if this is possible in the current environment, but I would rather a non-profit of some type take this on rather than wait for one of the myriad of government agencies that would be chomping at the bit for a chance to regulate science.

Friday Quote – Sam Kean

Think of the most fussy science teacher you ever had. The one who docked your grade if the sixth decimal place in your answer was rounded incorrectly; who tucked in his periodic table T-shirt, corrected every student who said “weight” when he or she meant “mass”, and made everyone, including himself, wear goggles even while mixing sugar water. Now try to imagine someone whom your teacher would hate for being anal-retentive. That is the kind of person who works for a bureau of standards and measurement.”

Sam Kean in The Disappearing Spoon: And Other True Tales of Madness, Love, and the History of the World From the Periodic Table of the Elements

This was an excellent narrative of the science and scientists that discovered the various elements of the periodic table, as well as the development of the table itself.

Friday Quote – Neils Bohr

Double quote goodness!

We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question which divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct. My own feeling is that it is not crazy enough.

If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.

Neils Bohr, Nobel laureate physicist

Quantum level physics is one of those areas of science that I have to struggle with. It’s as if reality has decided that it’s normal rules are boring and it’s going to do something else entirely.

Stop Advocating and Tell Us the Science

In my opinion, the biggest reason that the populace (particularly the American populace) doesn’t believe in climate change is the demands on policy made by many climatologists. It doesn’t help that many of those who are sounding the death drums can only think of government intervention as the only means to alleviate the changes.

So, it’s nice to see when a climatologist reminds her profession to just tell the science and stay out of policy.

I believe advocacy by climate scientists has damaged trust in the science. We risk our credibility, our reputation for objectivity, if we are not absolutely neutral. At the very least, it leaves us open to criticism. I find much climate scepticism is driven by a belief that environmental activism has influenced how scientists gather and interpret evidence. So I’ve found my hardline approach successful in taking the politics and therefore – pun intended – the heat out of climate science discussions.

Science should strive to tell us what is going on in the natural world and help to develop new technologies. Climatologists telling me that only a carbon tax will save the world from destruction looks like a fool because (s)he obviously doesn’t understand how market economies work or that the best way to a clean environment is through prosperity.

H/t Uncle

Friday Quote – Ron Bailey

Liberty is not advanced by misinformation and pseudoscience.

Ron Bailey, Reason science correspondent, in this article.

Normally, I understand that daytime TV is rife with pseudoscience. The Dr. Oz Show alone can usually produce enough bullshit to fertilize a field. Still, there is something highly disturbing about Jenny McCarthy joining “The View.”

It gives her a larger audience that will consider her “legitimate” because she’s now a talking head. This is a celebrity with a death toll to her name because of her current anti-vax ramblings.

BTW, make sure your kid gets jabbed, and on schedule.

Frakking Fracking

Ronald Bailey, Reason’s science correspondent, put out “The Top 5 Lies About Fracking.

You need to RTWT, but the biggest takeaway from this article is that fracking is like most industrial processes. If done properly, there is minimal impact. Done improperly, and it causes harm to others.

So who sets the standards? I’m more inclined for industry to set standards because they are going to be more knowledgable and have more to lose. Others may think that a government agency or agencies should set the standard. Considering what those agencies have done to accounting and pharmaceutical development (through the SEC and the FDA), I’m not as certain.

Dangerous Gorillas

Please view this before continuing on with the post. It’s only about 90 seconds of your time.

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see it the first time through either. Then I was listening to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe podcast as they discussed this news item about radiologists so focused on finding the expected anomalies, that they completely missed the gorilla in the pic. Click to make big

I’m sure your thinking This is all very interesting, but what does it have to do with me in my life? During the discussion of the radiology experiment, Steve Novella mentioned an experiment in 1959 where a researcher dressed up as a ghost and walked across the stage during the previews of a movie. According to the story, only about half of the people even noticed it. This phenomena is called selective attention, and it has real implications for maintaining situational awareness.

Let’s think back to the Aurora theater shooting. After looking at the video and the article, ask yourself this. Would you have noticed the guy in a costume until he opened fire? Here’s the damning part about the radiology experiment. We in the self-defense community think we’ve been trained to notice such anomalies, but so did the radiologists. Instead, they only focused on what they were supposed to be looking for. For myself, I don’t think I would have noticed until the gunfire. I realize this is a possible weakness, and I will try to remedy it in the future by being more observant. This is also where planning for contingencies comes in handy. If this happens, I’m going to do this… Why? Because you’re shortening your reaction time. Selective attention means a shorter window to implement any reaction to the threat. Contingency planning means when the threat occurs, all you’re doing is implementing.

Be watchful for the gorillas out there. Some of them are dangerous.